Gathering and analyzing statistical data is the only real objective method for assessing player or team performances. However, stats themselves are meaningless; they need to be interpreted first* in order to attain any value and be placed into a certain context in order to assess that value. Statistics are not indicators of the performance of a player, they are indicators of the efficiency of that performance and therefore susceptible to/contingent on a multitude of internal (e.g. fitness, form, etc.) and external (e.g. tactics, luck, etc.) factors.
* I will not be engaging into any subjective interpretations, but merely deriving conclusions from the factual evidence presented.
That said, let's have a look at how Lionel Messi performed over the course of the 2010/11 season.
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*SUMMARY
All competitions: 55 apps (48 GS), 53 goals, 24 assists
- La Liga: 33 apps (31 GS), 31 goals, 18 assists
- Copa del Rey: 7 apps (5 GS), 7 goals, 3 assists
- Champions League: 13 apps (11 GS), 12 goals, 3 assists
- Spanish Super Cup: 2 apps (1 GS), 3 goals
apps = appearances / GS = games started
*SCORING/ASSISTING RECORD
1) Consistency
The first factor to consider when analyzing scoring/assisting records is consistency: the ability (and tendency) to directly, positively influence as much games as possible throughout an entire season. Some valuable indicators of consistency include the spread or distribution of goals/assists, streaks and droughts, etc.
Usually the goal-to-game ratio (GGR) is used as a measure of a player's efficiency. However, this calculation does not represent the actual spread of goals throughout a season, because it is based on a hypothetical average of x goals per game, whilst there might have been games where the player scored x+1 or x-1 goals, or limited periods during which the player was well below or above the average. Therefore real game-to-game consistency is not reflected in this GGR average. Other methods will be required to further explore the actual scoring ratio.
The games scored ratio (GSR%) will divide the number of games the player has scored in by the number of games he has appeared in, as to create a more realistic measure of how consistently he influenced games by scoring.
Messi has appeared in 55 games this season (starting 48 of them), scoring 53 and assisting 24 goals.
GGR: 53/55 = 0.96 goals per game (which translates to having scored in 96.4% of all games played, on average). This gives no indication whatsoever of how the goals are spread out across the games.
Now, of those 55 games, Messi has scored in 33 of them, which means he has actually scored his 53 goals in 33 games instead of the 55 he played overall (which also means he has failed to score in the remaining 22 games).
GSR%: 33/55 = 0.60 games scored (which translates to having scored in 60% of all games played). To derive from this the average amount of games it takes Messi to score requires reversing of the calculation. The scoring spread ratio (SSR) divides the number of games played by the number of games scored, giving Messi an average of scoring every 1.66 games. (lit. 1.66 games per goal)
This shows a far more realistic consistency ratio, but does not indicate the average number of goals scored in games (average goals per game). To achieve this, the number of goals needs to be divided by the number of games in which the player scored.
Average GPG: 53/33 = 1.61 goals per game (scored).
The exact distribution of Messi’s goals: he has scored three goals (hat trick) on 4 occasions, two goals (brace) on 12 occasions, one goal on 17 occasions and no goals on 22 occasions; no games have featured four or more goals.
Same methods apply to assists:
- assist-to-game ratio (AGR): 24/55 = 0.43 assists per game*
- games assisted ratio (GAR%): 20/55 = 0.36 games assisted**
- assists per game (average APG): 24/20 = 1.20 assists per game (assisted)
*translates to having assisted in 43.6% of all games played
**translates to having assisted in 36.4% of all games played
Reversing the GAR% to find the assisting spread ratio (ASR) concludes an average of Messi assisting every 2.75 games.
The exact distribution of Messi’s assists: he has given two assists on 4 occasions, one assist on 16 occasions and no assists on 34 occasions; no games have featured three or more assists.
Conclusions
- scored in 60% of all his games at an average rate of 1.61 goals per game
- assisted in 36.4% of all his games at an average rate of 1.20 assists per game
- scored at least 1 goal every 1.66 games
- assisted at least 1 goal every 2.75 games
Comparison
In order to evaluate these numbers a comparison with another player might be helpful. The most apt test subject that comes to mind is undoubtedly Cristiano Ronaldo, main challenger to Messi for the ‘best player in the world’ tag.
All competitions: 54 apps (51 GS), 53 goals, 13 assists
- La Liga: 34 apps (32 GS), 40 goals, 10 assists
- Copa del Rey: 8 apps (7 GS), 7 goals, 1 assist
- Champions League: 12 apps (12 GS), 6 goals, 2 assists
apps = appearances / GS = games started
GGR: 53/54 = 0.98 (which translates to having scored in 98.1% of all games played, on average).
AGR: 13/54 = 0.24 (which translates to having assisted in 24.1% of all games played, on average).
Now, of those 54 games, Cristiano Ronaldo has scored in 28 of them, which means he has actually scored his 53 goals in 28 games instead of the 54 he played overall (which also means he has failed to score in the remaining 26 games).
GSR%: 28/54 = 0.51 (which translates to having scored in 51.9% of all games played).
GAR%: 11/54 = 0.20 (which translates to having assisted in 20.4% of all games played).
Reversing these calculations results in spread ratio’s of scoring every 1.93 games and assisting every 4.90 games.
Average GPG: 53/28 = 1.89 goals per game (scored)
Average APG: 13/11 = 1.18 assists per game (assisted)
From this, it can be concluded that Messi has scored and assisted in a higher percentage of his games than Ronaldo, albeit at a lower average rate (per game). Messi also has a higher spread ratio for scoring and assisting (both separately and combined), whereas Ronaldo achieves higher average goals per game, but fewer average assists per game.
To be continued...
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